Can Positive Online Sentiment Predict Movie Awards Gold?

At the 92nd Academy Awards, the world will tune in to see which films and actors take home gold statues for artistic and technical merit.

But what if (like us) you just can’t wait to find out who the winners might be?

Using the Notified PR Platform to Predict Movie Awards Gold

We thought it would be fun to tap into the Notified PR platform to listen in on social and online media buzz leading up to the Oscars to see if audience sentiment could give us an insider’s peek into the winners for Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Actor.

Can our crystal ball predict the winners? We’re making no promises, but here’s what we found based on data from global online and social media sources.

Best Picture: Parasite vs. The Irishman

Social-savvy PR and marketing pros already know that numbers alone don’t tell a complete story. You need to look at contextual data to get a better understanding of what’s really going on, and what people are really thinking.

Case in point: Parasite vs. The Irishman.

Looking at the number of mentions across the nine nominated films, The Irishman takes the lead with 25% of all mentions. Parasite, its closest runner-up, is at 16%. But mentions need context. Some people post about The Irishman because they love the film, and its director, Martin Scorsese. Others complain that it’s too long.  

But when we break down sentiment across the nine Best Picture nominees, the numbers tell a different story. The Irishman is not the leader in terms of positive sentiment. In fact, it’s tied at the bottom of the list:

• • Parasite: 70% positive sentiment
  • 1917: 68% positive sentiment
  • Marriage Story: 65% positive sentiment
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: 64% positive sentiment
  • Joker and Ford vs. Ferrari: each at 63% positive sentiment
  • Jojo Rabbit: 61% positive sentiment
  • The Irishman: 52% positive sentiment
  • Little Women: 52% positive sentiment

Actress in a Leading Role: A Tight Race  
 

The tightest race on Sunday night just might be between Scarlett Johansson and Renée Zellweger. 

When it comes to overall mentions across online and social media, the two are neck and neck and too close to call. Their share-of-voice (SOV) is tied at 24%. But Zellweger may have a slight edge as we near the awards, with positive sentiment leaning in her favor. Her 76% beats Johansson’s 68%.

Actor in a Leading Role: Phoenix Rising? 
 

Looking at overall SOV, Joaquin Phoenix leads the pack at 52%. His fellow nominees have just 48%—combined!  

Dig in to sentiment and you see a very different story:

• • Antonio Banderas: 77% positive sentiment
  • Jonathan Pryce : 70% positive sentiment
  • Joaquin Phoenix : 67% positive sentiment
  • Adam Driver : 65% positive sentiment
  • Leonardo DiCaprio : 61% positive sentiment

Because it’s fun to look at different social metrics to understand audience response and behavior, we moved away from sentiment alone to look at a particular moment in time—Feb. 2, 2019, to be exact.

At the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) awards, Best Actor was awarded to Joaquin Phoenix. He delivered a speech that was emotional and somewhat controversial, and it lit up social media—take a look:
 

What do you think? Does our data give you enough insight to confidently predict the winners of the Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress?

We look forward to finding out when the winners of the Oscars are when they're announced. No matter what happens, it sure was fun to spend some time inside the Notified PR platform to listen to the online and social chatter.

Want to take a test drive of the Notified PR platform to see what it can do you for your business? We’d be happy to talk with you and give you a personal demo—just get in touch.